Sunday, February 12, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
2012-2-17
It is that time of year. The time where you see if you still remember how to take the raw data and see what is going on. I like to take the unanalyzed COD data, do a hand analysis and then see how that matches up with RAP, et al. Not that the computer is more right than I am, but it will show where I making gross errors.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
2010-5-18 Forecast
Target: Sublette KS
Onset: 20-22Z
Synopsis:
A quasi stationary stationary cold front stretches from the big bend region of TX eastward into LA. There is an approaching upper level jet streak currently centered over AZ translating west to the TX/OK panhandle region. A low is developing in western CO and should move east during the course of the day. Finally there is a shortwave across western NM that should also approach the panhandle region during the afternoon hours.
12Z Objective:
Discussion:
The area of interest today will be near the surface low in SE CO / far SW KS. The 850mb moisture axis is bringing low 60's DP'd to the target area by mid afternoon. The approaching low and shortwave should fire storms off the dry line mid to late afternoon. Backed winds and excellent shear profiles will support tornadic super cells as storms move off the dry line. Of particular interest is what appears to be an OFB over the OK panhandle. If the OFB persists and storms can root on the boundary strong tornadoes will be possible with enhanced inflow into any cells that do fire.
12Z Analysis:
Onset: 20-22Z
Synopsis:
A quasi stationary stationary cold front stretches from the big bend region of TX eastward into LA. There is an approaching upper level jet streak currently centered over AZ translating west to the TX/OK panhandle region. A low is developing in western CO and should move east during the course of the day. Finally there is a shortwave across western NM that should also approach the panhandle region during the afternoon hours.
12Z Objective:
Discussion:
The area of interest today will be near the surface low in SE CO / far SW KS. The 850mb moisture axis is bringing low 60's DP'd to the target area by mid afternoon. The approaching low and shortwave should fire storms off the dry line mid to late afternoon. Backed winds and excellent shear profiles will support tornadic super cells as storms move off the dry line. Of particular interest is what appears to be an OFB over the OK panhandle. If the OFB persists and storms can root on the boundary strong tornadoes will be possible with enhanced inflow into any cells that do fire.
12Z Analysis:
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