Synopsis:
NW Flow remains just N of the forecast area with an upper level low centered over NW North Dakota. A stationary front runs from a surface low over the OK/TX panhandles to the NE into the upper mid west.
Surface 12Z
Discussion:
Overnight convection has been able to sustain through the morning hours just to the south of the stationary front. North central OK saw rain fall amounts in excess of 6" overnight with some damaging winds in the Enid area. The stationary front is progged to move slowly south over the afternoon and evening hours. However, the best area of shear will remain to the NW of the forecast area. An out flow boundary from the overnight convection lies over Osage county to the NW of Tulsa and has been making slow progress to the SE of the last few hours. Depending on where the boundary ends up, it should serve as the focus for additional convection this afternoon in the forecast area.
The shear environment should improve near the Tulsa area during the late afternoon hours after 21Z. If the out flow boundary makes it far enough south there is a good chance for scattered severe storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. The unknown at this point is whether the day time heating potential will be realized due to the high clouds from the morning convection. If the clouds manage to clear out in the next couple of hours the chance for storms will increase.
I know there are a lot of "ifs" in the above, but that is just how it goes with late summer thunderstorm forecasting...
700mb 12Z
850mb 12Z
200mb 12Z
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