Forecast 8/25/09

Synopsis:

The forecast area remains under an upper level trough for the next 36 hours with a cold front to the NW from a low centered over the OK panhandle running to the NE across KS, NE, IA, MN and WI. The cold front was clearly visible on satellite and dovetails nicely with the ridge to the NW.

200mb 12Z:

Surface 12Z: (Note 200mb overlay in light blue)

Discussion:

The strange weather continues for NE OK as what should be the dog days of summer have seemed more like late spring (not that I am complaining about that). Temperatures should be just below seasonal norms through Wed then we will see another cool down and a chance for rain. The ridge we are under should continue to translate east over the next 36 hours with a cool front approaching the region in the overnight hours on Wed. Note the 72 ECMWF 200mb chart below.

ECMWF 72 hour:

The NAM, GFS and ECMWF are all in pretty good agreement that the cold front should be to the south of the forecast area by 7PM on Thursday. Look for a chance of early morning convection Thursday morning with clouds probably lingering in the area for most of the day.

Once we get Thursday's front out of the picture look for another trough and cold front to move into the area during the Sunday timeframe.

120 Hour ECMWF:

Overall we will be below seasonal norms for this time of year and should be able to enjoy temperatures in the mid 80's during the days with temperatures falling into the lower 60's overnight. Not bad for August in OK!