An upper level trough lies just to the NW of the forecast area and should translate east over the next couple of days. A stationary front lies just to the N of the forecast area and has been the focus of ongoing convection.
12Z 200mb analysis

Discussion:
15Z Meso Surface

The overnight convection is ongoing to the W and N of the Tulsa area and has shown a weakening trend over the last few hours. An area of high pressure over NE OK is holding the convection off to the west and keeping the stationary front just to the N of the forecast area. Overcast skies due to debris from the convection to our west will hold temperatures down today and keep the chances of severe whether pretty much in check. There will be the possibility of hit or miss rain during the afternoon, but the best chances should stay to the north and west of Tulsa.
The best chance for rain appears to be in the Wednesday night time frame as the atmosphere should recover some instability during the day tomorrow. Shear should also increase during the late afternoon and evening hours Wednesday. At this time I am expecting an MCS to form to our NW during the late afternoon hours on Wed and enter the Tulsa area late in the evening. While there is the potential for some severe storms, rain should be the main mode for this complex.
Things should clear out after Wednesday and temperatures this weekend look to be at or below seasonal norms. While there is not a great agreement among the models at this time, it looks like temperatures may ramp up early next week with generally dry conditions prevailing.
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