Friday, July 17, 2009

7/17/09 Forecast


Synopsis:

Northwest flow aloft is holding the cold front / stationary front south of the forecast area. A east coast ridge continues to strengthen at 200mb. A surface low is sitting in SE CO and has helped to sustain and ongoing MCS from NW KS to south central KS.

200mb analysis, note the NW flow.
Discussion:

The cold front from last night sits just south of the forecast area and I expect it to turn into a stationary front that slowly retrogrades over the weekend. The good news is dew points should be down by about 10 degrees over the next few days which will make for a pleasant weekend. Looking forward into next week it looks like we will see a return to seasonal temps by mid week. Beyond mid week it looks as though the upper level ridge to the east will stay in place which should prevent a return to 100+ temps for a bit. This can be seen in the 7 day ECMWF depiction below.


While the weekend looks to stay dry, short waves in the NW flow will need to be watched to anticipate wet weather over the next 7 days.

12Z Surface analysis:
12Z NECP automated analysis with radar:

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