7/14/09 Forecast

Forecast Area: NE OK

Synopsis:

The upper ridge that has plagued the area for the past week is still firmly in place and will remain so for another 24 hours or so. The upper level high that was parked over central TX was moved west and is now sitting over the Big Bend region of western TX and southern NM. There is a warm front running from a surface low centered over the OK panhandle east across the OK/KS border and then running SE across NE OK and AR. The warm front appears to wash out into a stationary front from central AR to the SE. A trough of low pressure/stationary front extends from the surface low in the OK pan handle to an area of high pressure over northern CO. The news maker later this week will be a cold front that runs from the surface high to the NE across NE and SD.

Discussion:

Expect the hot temperatures to continue across NE OK this afternoon with Td's running in the upper 60's. This combination will continue to create high heat index values across the region. The far NE part of the forecast area will get a bit of a break due to the over night convection associated with the warm front. There is an OFB across far SW MO and NW AR that may serve as the focal point for another round of convection this afternoon, but do not expect that to effect the forecast area.

A continuation of down slope winds aided by warm 850mb temperatures and low Td's will crank up the heat across the western portion of the forecast area, but lower Td's will also moderate the heat index values. Expect strong winds from the south in the eastern portion of the forecast area veering to SW winds further to the west.

The 12Z GFS continues to depict the warm front moving north over KS over the next 24 hours before being over taken by the cold front some time in the Wed evening time frame. Depending on the timing there is a chance for convection in the forecast area Wed night. Best chances for storms seems to be in the Thurs morning to Thurs day time frame as the cold front moves across the forecast area.

Expect temperatures to moderate to more seasonal levels post cold front. Also, the upper level ridge should break down during this period and put the forecast area in a NW flow aloft. This will increase rain chances through the weekend into early next week.

Long story short, we have just two more hot days before we get a much needed break!