7/20/09 Forecast

SYNOPSIS:

The NW flow continues over the forecast area for the time being. A warm front lies just over the Tulsa area running on a line from Woodward ok to Tulsa to Little Rock AR as of 21Z. There is a surface low sitting over SW KS with a stronger cold front anchored by another surface low over central NE. To complicate things, there is a trough of low pressure running from SW NE all the way down to the TX panhandle.

12Z Analysis (Note, the warm front has moved north since this morning analysis)

18Z Meso Analysis:

Discussion:

Dew points are through the roof in the area today making it feel much hotter than it is. Those dew points are the fuel which may aid in storm development this evening and overnight. Tonight's forecast is a little on the tricky side. The coldfront to our NW should dive south tonight and be the focus of an MCS (read big storms) that should dive from NE to the SE across KS and into NE OK during the overnight hours. The real question is how far south the MCS makes it. While the NWS TUL is bringing the storms all the way into the Tulsa area overnight, I think the latest GFS and NAM runs are going to keep it just to our north. While it is possible that we will get some thunder and rain overnight due to the MCS I believe the bulk of the rain and severe weather will stay in SE KS, far NE OK and far NW AR. Don't be surprised to hear mother nature's alarm clock at about 4AM tomorrow.

Prior to the main show late tonight, there is the possibility of storms firing just about anywhere due to the high CAPE numbers over the area with little CINH or cap. However, there will need to be some forcing for that to happen and a look at the radar as of 18Z doesn't reveal any outflow boundaries as areas of forcing at this time. That said, the trough of low pressure to the west could cause some storms to pop up west of Tulsa and make their way down the warm front in the early and late evening hours.

Tomorrow should be a pleasant day with cooler weather after we get the chance of storms out of the area. Look for things to warm up the next few days with a possibility of another cold front effecting the area toward the weekend.