No hand analysis today, too busy with golf and what not. That said, the NWS TUL office wants to break out precip for most of the area tomorrow night into Tues morning. After a brief look at the 18Z NAM it looks like it may stay north of the Tulsa area, but then again maybe not. There is a pretty well defined surface short wave that seems to be riding the NW flow into the area. It is currently running from SD all the way to the TX pan handle along what NCEP is depicting as a stationary front. I think it is more of a pressure
gradient than a front, but will wait for the surface plots tomorrow to make that call.
Like all NW flow events, it is all about the timing and we will will just have to wait till the AM to get a handle on that. Easier when this is a hobby, not a job...
Surface depiction with radar from 20CDT
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